糧食價格為何會影響糧食安全？
1、種糧效益要靠糧食的價格，不能靠政府的補貼
liangshianquanjuedingyunongmindezhongliangjijixing，zhongliangjijixingjuedingyuzhongliangxiaoyi。zhongliangxiaoyikeyitixianzaishichangxiaoyihezhengfubutiedengfangmian。oumeidengfadaguojialiangnongdexiaoyizhuyaoyikaozhengfubutie，yibanzhan60%以yi上shang。但dan我wo國guo在zai財cai力li十shi分fen有you限xian的de情qing況kuang下xia，種zhong糧liang效xiao益yi依yi靠kao政zheng府fu補bu貼tie是shi不bu現xian實shi的de，而er應ying依yi靠kao市shi場chang效xiao益yi為wei主zhu，即ji依yi靠kao糧liang食shi的de價jia格ge。糧liang食shi價jia格ge才cai是shi農nong民min種zhong糧liang積ji極ji性xing的de根gen本ben。如ru20(科(ke)年(nian)在(zai)黨(dang)中(zhong)央(yang)國(guo)務(wu)院(yuan)的(de)高(gao)度(du)重(zhong)視(shi)下(xia)，全(quan)國(guo)各(ge)地(di)都(dou)實(shi)施(shi)了(le)糧(liang)食(shi)直(zhi)接(jie)補(bu)貼(tie)政(zheng)策(ce)，對(dui)調(tiao)動(dong)農(nong)民(min)種(zhong)糧(liang)積(ji)極(ji)性(xing)起(qi)到(dao)了(le)重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)作(zuo)用(yong)，確(que)切(qie)地(di)說(shuo)，起(qi)到(dao)了(le)重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)推(tui)動(dong)作(zuo)用(yong)。筆(bi)者(zhe)以(yi)為(wei)，這(zhe)項(xiang)政(zheng)策(ce)更(geng)重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)意(yi)義(yi)在(zai)於(yu)明(ming)確(que)了(le)政(zheng)府(fu)的(de)導(dao)向(xiang)，而(er)不(bu)在(zai)於(yu)增(zeng)加(jia)種(zhong)糧(liang)效(xiao)益(yi)。種(zhong)糧(liang)效(xiao)益(yi)的(de)提(ti)升(sheng)主(zhu)要(yao)靠(kao)自(zi)去(qu)年(nian)下(xia)半(ban)年(nian)以(yi)來(lai)的(de)市(shi)場(chang)糧(liang)食(shi)價(jia)格(ge)的(de)大(da)幅(fu)回(hui)升(sheng)。如(ru)2007年浙江省早釉穀市場收購價達到了1.6元/噸左右，比去年同期提高了0.6元左右，提高幅度達60%左右。農民種早稻的收益因漲價因素增加250元/667m2左右。而政府補貼(針對種糧大戶)隻有巧員夕667擴(直接補貼10元、良種補貼5元)，經濟發達的縣、市加上地方補貼，可達到so元左右。很明顯，政府補貼在種糧效益中所占的比重是比較低的。假如2儀吟年糧價不回升，僅靠一點政府補貼是無法調動農民種糧積極性的。
2、糧價過低是糧食安全的第一殺手，現階段糧價應多加維護
congxianjieduanliangshishengchannenglieryan，woguowanquanyounengliweichiliangshichanxupingheng。jinnianchuxiandeliangshimianjidafuxiahuadaozhichanbuzuxuxianzhuang，zhuyaoshiyouliangjiaguodizaocheng。liangjiaguodichenglexianjieduanliangshianquandediyishashou。liangjiachangshiqiguodi，zhongliangwuxiaoyi，bujinshinongminzhongliangjijixingsangshidaijin，daozhidamianjijianzhong，erqiehuishiyixiedifangzhengfuyesuizhexiaoyizhihuibangdedaoxiang，qingshiliangshishengchan，duiliangshishengchanjianshaotourenhefuchi。zheyang，bujinshiyanqiandeliangshishengchanjianxialaile，erqiecongchangyuankan，liangshizongheshengchannengliyebijiangbeixueruo，bijianggeiliangshianquanzaochengyanzhongweixie。qianjinianquanguoliangshimianjidahuapodezhuyaoyuanyinjiushi“穀賤傷農”所致。20()3年下半年以來，糧價雖然有了較大幅度的上漲，但這種上漲是恢複性上漲，不僅糧食收購價還未達到1995年的水平，而且考慮到糧食生產成本上漲的因素，種糧實際效益還未達到1995niandeshuiping，zhongliangxiaoyibijiaodidexianzhuangzhijinrengweigaibian。xianjieduanzhengfuyinggaidanxinliangjiayiranguodidewenti，erbuyingdanxinliangjiashangzhangguokuaidewenti。zhengfuduiliangshihuifuxingshangzhangdeshitouyinggaijiayiweihu，buyingcaiqupaoshouchubeiliangdengcuoshilaipingyiliangjia。
3、糧價的合理性應從比較效益角度來考慮.而不應僅僅從生產成本角度來考慮
市場經濟條件下，農民擁有種植自主權。農民根據自己的勞動力狀況、土地狀況、市場狀況及效益等多種因素決定種什麼。對於農民來說，這裏有個效益優先的原則，也就是“什麼賺錢種什麼”。以浙江省為例，1999一一2003年期間，糧食作物(指水稻，以單季晚稻為主)平均單產值僅為500元/667時左右，毛收人(勞動力不計人生產成本)200五夕667擴左右。蔬菜作物平均單產值達1500五夕667擴左右，毛收人1以x〕元/667m2左右。糧食作物產值僅為蔬菜的1乃，毛收人僅為蔬菜作物的1乃。由於比較效益過低，農民大幅調減糧食作物而發展蔬菜等經濟作物。5年內糧食作物麵積減少137.2萬h擴，減幅達49%，而同期蔬菜麵積增加33.27萬h擴，增幅達90%。由(you)此(ci)可(ke)看(kan)出(chu)，為(wei)了(le)保(bao)證(zheng)農(nong)民(min)有(you)種(zhong)糧(liang)積(ji)極(ji)性(xing)，就(jiu)應(ying)保(bao)證(zheng)種(zhong)糧(liang)有(you)一(yi)定(ding)的(de)比(bi)較(jiao)效(xiao)益(yi)。由(you)於(yu)糧(liang)食(shi)具(ju)有(you)大(da)眾(zhong)性(xing)和(he)不(bu)可(ke)或(huo)缺(que)性(xing)的(de)特(te)點(dian)，不(bu)能(neng)期(qi)待(dai)糧(liang)食(shi)成(cheng)為(wei)稀(xi)缺(que)產(chan)品(pin)而(er)使(shi)比(bi)較(jiao)效(xiao)益(yi)最(zui)好(hao)。考(kao)慮(lv)到(dao)糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)具(ju)有(you)生(sheng)產(chan)成(cheng)本(ben)低(di)、投勞少、生產周期短、產品耐儲藏、市shi場chang風feng險xian相xiang對dui較jiao低di等deng特te點dian，糧liang食shi比bi較jiao效xiao益yi允yun許xu適shi當dang低di些xie。在zai這zhe裏li，筆bi者zhe提ti出chu一yi個ge農nong作zuo物wu比bi較jiao效xiao益yi係xi數shu的de概gai念nian，即ji一yi種zhong農nong作zuo物wu的de單dan位wei麵mian積ji效xiao益yi與yu另ling一yi種zhong農nong作zuo物wu的de單dan位wei麵mian積ji效xiao益yi之zhi比bi所suo產chan生sheng的de值zhi。在zai某mou一yi地di區qu，糧liang食shi作zuo物wu可ke以yi以yi當dang地di主zhu要yao大da田tian經jing濟ji作zuo物wu為wei參can照zhao。如ru浙zhe江jiang省sheng糧liang食shi作zuo物wu與yu蔬shu菜cai的de麵mian積ji分fen別bie居ju大da田tian作zuo物wu的de第di1，2位，兩個者相比有其合理性。筆者認為，在浙江省，糧食與蔬菜的比較效益係數在0.7以上較為合理，農民有較好的種糧積極性;如果低於0.5，即會導致種糧積極性下降;如果低於0.3，種糧積極性會喪失殆盡。按照以上3個係數來粗略測算，浙江省的晚稻穀收購價分別為0元/kg，1.6元/kg和1.2元/噸。也就是說，現階段如果晚稻穀收購價在0元/kg以上時，農民有較好的種糧積極性;低於1.6元/噸時，種糧積極性不高;低於1.2元/kg時，種糧積極性喪失殆盡。
4、糧價應由市場決定為主，但離不開政府的保護
jinnianlailiangjiaguodideyuanyinguranshiduofangmiande，danguoyouliangshiqiyedujialongduanliangshishougoushichangdaozhirenweiyadiliangjiadeyinsuyeshibukefourende。congjinniankaishi，liangshigouxiaoshichanghuagaigezaiquanguopukai，liangshishougouzhutijiangduoyuanhua，jubeiyidingzizhidegezhongsuoyouzhideqiyejunkecanyuliangshishougoushichang。duoyuanzhutizaishichangshanggongpingjingzheng，zheweiliangshideshichangdingjiadiandinglejichu，xingzhengganyuzuoyongjiangbeidadaxueruo，shuiyewufarenyiyadiliangjia，duiyuliangjiadehuishengshiyoulide。danshishichangjizhidingjiayeyouqibiduan。dangshengchanliangguodashi，liangjiabiranzoudi。liangjiaguodi，liangnongmeiyoushengchanjijixing，liangshishengchanliangxiajiang，congerweixiedaoliangshianquanwenti。yincicongliangshianquandejiaodukaolv，zhengfuyinggaiduiliangjiayouyidingdebaohucuoshi，ruchutailiangshishougouzuidibaohujia。chutaizuidibaohujiademudebujinjinshibaohuliangnongdezhongliangjijixing，gengzhongyaodeyiyizaiyubaohuchangyuandeliangshianquan。
5、最低保護價不宜年年出，而市場指導價應定期發布
最(zui)低(di)保(bao)護(hu)價(jia)宜(yi)在(zai)市(shi)場(chang)糧(liang)價(jia)過(guo)低(di)嚴(yan)重(zhong)挫(cuo)傷(shang)糧(liang)農(nong)積(ji)極(ji)性(xing)時(shi)才(cai)出(chu)台(tai)。最(zui)低(di)保(bao)護(hu)價(jia)的(de)確(que)定(ding)以(yi)糧(liang)農(nong)種(zhong)糧(liang)有(you)一(yi)定(ding)的(de)效(xiao)益(yi)為(wei)依(yi)據(ju)，不(bu)能(neng)僅(jin)僅(jin)以(yi)保(bao)本(ben)或(huo)微(wei)利(li)為(wei)水(shui)準(zhun)。最(zui)低(di)保(bao)護(hu)價(jia)定(ding)位(wei)往(wang)往(wang)偏(pian)低(di)，在(zai)正(zheng)常(chang)年(nian)景(jing)下(xia)往(wang)往(wang)明(ming)顯(xian)低(di)於(yu)市(shi)場(chang)價(jia)。如(ru)果(guo)年(nian)年(nian)公(gong)布(bu)最(zui)低(di)保(bao)護(hu)價(jia)，容(rong)易(yi)導(dao)致(zhi)收(shou)購(gou)企(qi)業(ye)借(jie)保(bao)護(hu)價(jia)之(zhi)名(ming)壓(ya)低(di)糧(liang)食(shi)收(shou)購(gou)價(jia)格(ge)。這(zhe)種(zhong)情(qing)況(kuang)在(zai)糧(liang)食(shi)購(gou)銷(xiao)市(shi)場(chang)化(hua)程(cheng)度(du)不(bu)高(gao)，糧(liang)食(shi)收(shou)購(gou)市(shi)場(chang)由(you)獨(du)家(jia)或(huo)少(shao)數(shu)幾(ji)家(jia)壟(long)斷(duan)的(de)情(qing)況(kuang)下(xia)尤(you)為(wei)突(tu)出(chu)。過(guo)去(qu)，糧(liang)食(shi)收(shou)購(gou)由(you)國(guo)有(you)糧(liang)食(shi)部(bu)門(men)獨(du)家(jia)壟(long)斷(duan)。從(cong)表(biao)麵(mian)上(shang)看(kan)，政(zheng)府(fu)年(nian)年(nian)出(chu)台(tai)糧(liang)食(shi)最(zui)低(di)收(shou)購(gou)保(bao)護(hu)價(jia)，對(dui)農(nong)民(min)出(chu)售(shou)的(de)餘(yu)糧(liang)由(you)國(guo)有(you)糧(liang)食(shi)部(bu)門(men)按(an)保(bao)護(hu)價(jia)敞(chang)開(kai)收(shou)購(gou)，保(bao)護(hu)了(le)農(nong)民(min)利(li)益(yi)。但(dan)事(shi)實(shi)是(shi)，“保護價不保護”。
保護價被人為地壓得很低，糧價往往被定在糧食生產成本附近，加上糧食部門收購糧食時的“壓級壓價”，zhongliangchuyukuisundebianyuan。yincizailiangjiazhengchangdenianjing，zhengfubuyichutailiangshizuidibaohujia，ergaiweifabushichangzhidaojia。shichangzhidaojiayouzhengfubumenhuoliangshichanxiaoxiehuidengjigouzaiduidangqianliangshishichangxingqingguangfantiaozhadejichushang，xiangshehuifabudedangdidangshideliangshishougoujiagexinxi。gaijiagejingonggefangcankao，meiyourenheyueshuli。shichangzhidaojiayinggainiannianfabu，shenzhikeyianjihuoanyuedingqifabu。youyuliangshidiquchajiadecunzai，shichangzhidaojiabuyingyouzhongyangzhengfutongyifabu，keyiyougeshengzixingfabu。
