糧(liang)食(shi)安(an)全(quan)事(shi)關(guan)國(guo)家(jia)穩(wen)定(ding)和(he)社(she)會(hui)發(fa)展(zhan)。就(jiu)如(ru)何(he)確(que)保(bao)國(guo)家(jia)糧(liang)食(shi)安(an)全(quan)，眾(zhong)多(duo)學(xue)者(zhe)提(ti)出(chu)了(le)許(xu)多(duo)頗(po)有(you)見(jian)地(di)的(de)主(zhu)張(zhang)，例(li)如(ru)，利(li)用(yong)國(guo)際(ji)糧(liang)食(shi)市(shi)場(chang)分(fen)擔(dan)糧(liang)食(shi)安(an)全(quan)風(feng)險(xian)；“藏糧於田”，加強糧食綜合生產能力建設
；jianliliangshianquantixiyuliangshianquanyujingxitongdeng。danshi
，zhexiezhuzhangtanlungengduodeshiliangshideshengchanhuanjieheliutonghuanjie
，quehulveleliangshishengchanzhutidexingwei，jinongminshifouyoucongshiliangshishengchandejijixing。

　　tigaonongmindezhongliangjijixingcaishibaozhengzhongguoliangshianquandejuedingxingyinsu，ertigaonongmindezhongliangjijixing
，guanjianzaiyutigaoliangshishengchan。tigaoliangshishengchan，keyitigaonongmindezhongliangshouru
，jiketigaonongmindezhongliangjijixing，quebaoliangshishengchanzongliangdezengjia
，weizhongguoliangshianquantigongwendingdejichu；又(you)可(ke)增(zeng)加(jia)種(zhong)糧(liang)農(nong)民(min)的(de)可(ke)支(zhi)配(pei)收(shou)入(ru)，擴(kuo)大(da)種(zhong)糧(liang)農(nong)民(min)的(de)購(gou)買(mai)力(li)，拉(la)動(dong)內(nei)需(xu)
，促(cu)進(jin)經(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)。因(yin)此(ci)，分(fen)析(xi)糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)收(shou)益(yi)的(de)影(ying)響(xiang)因(yin)素(su)


，從(cong)中(zhong)找(zhao)出(chu)影(ying)響(xiang)糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)產(chan)收(shou)益(yi)的(de)關(guan)鍵(jian)因(yin)素(su)，具(ju)有(you)重(zhong)大(da)的(de)現(xian)實(shi)意(yi)義(yi)。

　　研究表明

，糧食生產成本
、糧食價格
、糧食單產及政策性成本都對糧食生產收益產生影響。但是，因缺乏比較全麵的定量研究，現有研究未能回答下述關鍵性問題：在種糧成本
、糧食價格、畝產及政策性成本這些因素中，到底哪個是影響糧食生產收益最為關鍵的因素，到底應選取哪個作為突破口？即提高糧價、控製成本、提升單產和降低政策性成本（如加大直接補貼力度等）sizhezhong，yingxuanqunagezuoweitigaoliangshishengchanshouyideguanjianshouduan
？qieshangshuyanjiujunshiyongliangshishengchanchengbenshouyidedangnianjiageshuju，shujuzainianduzhijianquefakebixing
，shiyanjiujielundekekaoxingqianjia。

　　針對此種情形，彭克強分別對糧食（稻穀
、小麥、玉米）和玉米生產收益的影響因素進行了分析，但因選取不同的物價平減指數而得出不一致的結論。這給筆者留下一個疑問：

　　在分析糧食生產收益與其影響因素之間的關係時，將糧食價格環比指數化（上年價格=100）能neng剔ti除chu物wu價jia變bian動dong的de影ying響xiang嗎ma？以yi農nong業ye生sheng產chan資zi料liao價jia格ge定ding基ji指zhi數shu做zuo平ping減jian處chu理li之zhi後hou的de畝mu均jun物wu質zhi與yu服fu務wu費fei是shi畝mu均jun實shi際ji物wu質zhi與yu服fu務wu費fei嗎ma？筆bi者zhe的de理li解jie是shi：環比指數化之後的價格並不是實際價格，在年度間依舊缺乏可比性；以yi農nong業ye生sheng產chan資zi料liao價jia格ge定ding基ji指zhi數shu做zuo平ping減jian處chu理li之zhi後hou的de畝mu均jun物wu質zhi與yu服fu務wu費fei的de變bian動dong情qing況kuang反fan映ying的de是shi農nong業ye生sheng產chan資zi料liao投tou入ru數shu量liang的de變bian動dong情qing況kuang，除chu剔ti除chu了le物wu價jia變bian動dong的de影ying響xiang外wai，還hai剔ti除chu了le農nong業ye生sheng產chan資zi料liao實shi際ji價jia格ge的de變bian動dong情qing況kuang
；用農村居民消費價格定基指數對價格、物質與服務費進行平減處理之後的價格


、物質與服務費才是實際價格和實際物質與服務費
，才具年度間的可比性。

　　筆者認為，提高糧食生產收益的突破口的選取應同時考慮兩個方麵：一是糧食生產收益應對該因素的變動十分敏感
；ershigaiyinsuyingshifenzhongyao。qianzheshejigeyinsuduiliangshishengchanshouyidedanxingwenti，houzhezeshejigeyinsudeshouyigongxianlvwenti，eryiyouyanjiujunhulveleduigeyingxiangyinsushouyigongxianlvdekaocha。yinci，benwenjixuyiliangshishengchanshouyideyingxiangyinsuweiyanjiuduixiang，yinongcunjuminxiaofeijiagezhishuweiwujiapingjianzhishu
，yimujunshijijingshouyiweibeijieshibianliang，yichuqushuijinzhihoudemujunshijiwuzhiyufuwufei
、每50公斤糧食實際價格、danchanjimujunshijizhengcexingchengbenweijieshibianliang
，congdanxinghegongxianlvlianggefangmianjiugeyinsuduiliangshishengchanshouyideyingxiangjinxingfenxi
，jucipanduanchuyingxiangliangshishengchanshouyibiandongdeguanjianyinsu。