suiranyuanyoujiagejixupufuzaixiangduidiwei，suiranwaipandadouhedouyoujixuyunxingzaiqianqigaodianzhixia，suiranmuqianguoneixianhuoshichangchuyuchuantongdexiaofeidanji
，danqihuoshichangduiguowaineiganhanticaidechaozuoshidezuorizhiwuyouqihuoquanxianshangzhang，caiyouzhuliheyuegengshiyizhangtingbaoshou，jishushangyigenfangliangchangyangtupoqianqigaodian，dayoudakaishangshengkongjian，laiyibodaxingqingzhishi。zaimeiguonongyebujijianggongbuyuedubaogaozhijilagaoyouzhijiagesihubuheqingli
，danmuqianwoguoyoucaichanquchuxiandeganhanyijizainanmeidadouchanquchuxiandeganhanshidezhiwuyoushangzhangyouleyidingdejiekouheyiju。

近期CBOTdadouyijidouyouqihuodezoushijibenshangbeinanmeiganhandejiazhonghuohuanjiezuoyou
，yichangxiaoyukeyishiqijiadaluoshushidian，erlianxujigeqingtianyoushideshichangdanxinhanqingehua，chanliangjiangdiershidedadouhedouyoujiagequyuzouqiang。jumuqiangezhongzixunlejie，muqianegentingdeganhankenengdaozhiegentingdadoubozhongmianjidabudaoqianqiyujishuiping，ganhandaozhibufendikuaiwufawanchengdadoubozhongeryizuotayong。tongshi
，ganhanduiyudadouyoumiaoshengchang
，kaihuadoudailaibutongchengdudeyingxiang。yinci，minjianjigoudoukaishizhubuxiatiaoegentingdadouchanliang。genjuFAS官網公布的美農業部參讚報告，由於收獲麵積減小及整體單產水平預期下降，阿根廷2008/09年度大豆產量料降至4250萬噸。而美農業部1月12日供需報告預測的產量為4950萬噸。同樣
，南美的另一個大豆主產國――巴西的大豆生產同樣不容樂觀。根據巴西國家商品供應公司Conab周四報告顯示，由於幹旱少雨，2008/09年度巴西大豆產量預計為5720萬噸，低於美農業部1月12日報告的5900萬噸預估值。如果這些減產預期被最權威的機構――USDA 所確認，那麼本月度報告出台後，或將刺激外盤盤麵繼續走強。

內nei盤pan油you脂zhi之zhi所suo以yi由you菜cai油you期qi貨huo作zuo為wei上shang漲zhang的de領ling頭tou羊yang主zhu要yao原yuan因yin還hai是shi目mu前qian我wo國guo油you菜cai產chan區qu出chu現xian的de嚴yan重zhong幹gan旱han，據ju各ge種zhong媒mei體ti報bao道dao，目mu前qian我wo國guo的de幹gan旱han麵mian積ji繼ji續xu擴kuo大da，截jie至zhi2月7日統計
，全國耕地受旱麵積2.99億畝
，比常年同期多1.10億畝，其中作物受旱麵積1.53億畝
，重旱4996萬畝
，幹枯394萬畝

，有442萬人、222萬頭大牲畜因旱發生飲水困難。河北
、山西、安徽、江蘇、河南、山東
、陝西、甘肅等8省冬麥區受旱麵積總計1.52億畝，占全國作物受旱麵積的95%，其中重旱4879萬(wan)畝(mu)。而(er)其(qi)中(zhong)油(you)菜(cai)的(de)主(zhu)產(chan)區(qu)之(zhi)一(yi)安(an)徽(hui)的(de)油(you)菜(cai)幹(gan)旱(han)尤(you)為(wei)嚴(yan)重(zhong)。這(zhe)將(jiang)使(shi)得(de)今(jin)年(nian)我(wo)國(guo)油(you)菜(cai)籽(zi)播(bo)種(zhong)麵(mian)積(ji)雖(sui)然(ran)繼(ji)續(xu)增(zeng)加(jia)，但(dan)產(chan)量(liang)可(ke)能(neng)小(xiao)於(yu)先(xian)前(qian)市(shi)場(chang)預(yu)期(qi)。

除chu了le幹gan旱han題ti材cai外wai，目mu前qian在zai坊fang間jian炒chao作zuo得de紛fen紛fen揚yang揚yang的de油you菜cai籽zi的de第di三san批pi收shou儲chu計ji劃hua也ye可ke能neng是shi刺ci激ji菜cai油you強qiang勁jin封feng停ting的de原yuan因yin之zhi一yi。據ju傳chuan，政zheng府fu將jiang增zeng加jia收shou儲chu油you菜cai籽zi15萬噸，從而使收儲總量達到150萬噸
，繼續減少市場供應。

houqikan，youzhiqihuodezhebofandannengzouduoyuan，yijiuyaokannanmeidadouchanquhuowoguoyoucaichanqudehanqingzhuangkuang。dangran
，benyuemeiguonongyebudeyuedugongxubaogaomashangjiuyaoxinxianchulu，qiduiyouzhileiqihuodeyingxiangzhidewomenmiqieguanzhu。http://www.98fo.cn